Basketball: Unto the Dogs

Bosh Article (excruciatingly long for a blog post, but mercifully short for a Russian novel)

2010-05-07T08:28:00.000-07:00

Long-winded preamble

Below is a sampling of trade scenarios involving Chris Bosh. The selection of teams which have been included is based on a scan of media reports, indicating possible destinations for Bosh. Based on the assumption that these reports have some degree (at least minor) of reliability, Bosh’s actual interest in each given team is not discussed in this article.

Obviously, there are likely millions of possible trade permutations involving Bosh. Here they have been distilled to one per team; this is in no way to suggest that these are the only ways a trade involving Bosh could work out. That said, every variation that is shown here would work under NBA roster and salary regulations.

The number, shown in brackets, after each player or pick is an approximate value for the player, expressed in first-round draft pick equivalents. This number is based on the statistical performance of the player, the length of their contract (in the case of free agents, this is considered to be 0 years), and the age of the player. In general, until a player reaches a certain age, extra years under contract increase a player’s value. After a certain age, extra years under contract decrease a player’s value. Obviously, this value should not be taken as gospel.

By way of example, the value of LeBron James, based on his statistically performance, would be 5.0 first round pick equivalents, if he were signed to a four-year contract. As a free agent, with no contract, his value corrects to 4.0.

By this system, Chris Bosh’s value is 3.0 picks. This value is supported by history. The sign-and-trade value of Joe Johnson and Kenyon Martin (both max-contract sign-and-trades) was equivalent to 3.0 picks. In fact, as a result of that precedent, and because of his clear superiority to Johnson and Martin, Bosh’s value has been bumped up (somewhat arbitrarily) to 3.5 picks

Where draft picks are included in a trade scenario, the year of the pick has been specified, and the pick has been assigned a value. The year indicates the year when any conditions on the pick should be removed (it should be unconditional). Almost all picks now traded are conditional. The 2014 pick Toronto receives in the Knicks scenario might be imagined to be, instead, a conditional pick: top-20 protected in 2011; lottery protected in 2012; top-10 protected in 2013; and, unprotected in 2014. The value of the pick varies depending on the year, a more distant pick (or one with more conditions) is worth less.

End Long-winded preamble, beginning long-winded article

Bosh to the New York Knicks

A potential swap between these teams would likely be built around David Lee. The deal could readily come to involve three or four teams, since the Raptors are unlikely to be interested in Danilo Gallinari – as a deal sweetener – because of his similarity to Hedo Turkoglu, or Wilson Chandler, because of his similarity to DeMar DeRozan.

Orlando is a possible destination for Gallinari, as a Turkoglu v. 2.0 could appeal to them. Sending Mickael Pietrus on to the Raps, in a three-way deal, would also save the Magic over 6 million dollars, as they are a tax-paying team. Since Matt Barnes and J.J. Redick will both be out of contract this summer, saving that money could be appealing.

An interesting variant of this deal would return the same package to the Raps and Magic, but would net both Bosh and Baron Davis for the Knicks.

New York gets:

Bosh [3½]

Orlando gets:

Gallinari [1½]

J.R. Giddens [0, contract (option not exercised)]

Toronto gets:

David Lee [2]

Mickael Pietrus [¾]

2014 1st Round Pick (Orlando) [¾]

Bosh to the Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers will likely only be drawn into the Bosh bidding if they do not win the Championship this season. Andrew Bynum is the obvious target, but it is not difficult to imagine whiny, proxy GM Kobe Bryant instead calling for Pau Gasol’s ouster if they fail in the playoffs.

Both Bynum and Gasol have some downside risk for the Raps. Bynum is on a near-maximum salary despite having never played more than 2000 minutes in a season – due largely to injury. Given his recent contract extension, Gasol offers the real risk of having his max-contract outlast his max-contract skill level.

In either case, one could imagine the Raps extorting a pick (or two in Bynum’s case) as a hedge against these risks, and the Lakers complying to soothe the savage Kobe after a playoff failure

Lakers get:

Bosh [3½]

Toronto gets:

Pau Gasol [3]

2015 1st Round Pick [½]

Andrew Bynum [2¼]

2011 1st Round Pick [1]

2017 1st Round Pick [¼]

Bosh to the Los Angeles Clippers

Obviously, it is a long shot that the Clippers would make an appearance on Bosh’s short list. Nevertheless, the Clips may have the pieces to get the deal done in the event Bosh does find them suitable.

Chris Kaman has a contract that nearly balances a trade for Bosh. As a result, the Clips could offer a package similar to that offered by the Knicks.

Clippers get:

Bosh [3½]

Toronto gets:

Chris Kaman [2]

Pietrus (or similar) [¾]

2014 1st Round Pick [¾]

Bosh to the Portland Trail Blazers

Rumours persist that the Blazers are interested in Chris Bosh, though it remains to be seen if he reciprocates. Portland might be wise to reconsider their interest, since they are the team most likely to be badly taken advantage of in a potential Bosh deal.

For the past two seasons the Blazers have had enviable depth on the wings, with Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw all vying for time alongside Brandon Roy. This has also meant that none of these players has accrued the value that they would have had they been getting starters’ minutes. In 2009-10, for instance, Webster leeched playing time (and value) from the clearly superior Batum and Fernandez. As a result, the Blazers are less likely to receive fair value given the skill level of these two players.

Add to this the fact that the Blazers would likely move LaMarcus Aldridge to clear room for Bosh (most likely trading him for Bosh), and this all has the potential to go badly wrong for the Blazers.

Aldridge gives Portland 75% of the performance of Bosh for 60% of the money. In any other business, this would make him preferable to Bosh. In the NBA, however, teams almost ubiquitously favour elite talent over above average talent, despite the irrational price premium.

Portland gets:

Bosh [3½]

Toronto gets:

LaMarcus Aldridge [2¾]

Rudy Fernandez or Nicolas Batum [¾]

Joel Przybilla [0, contract (with potential to return from injury)]

Bosh to the Houston Rockets

Houston is the latest buzzed-about destination for Bosh. No one player the Rockets could make available would blow the Raptors socks off; instead the Rockets offer numbers and flexibility.

Houston has at least seven readily movable players, none of whom have a contract guaranteed beyond next season. Additionally, next off-season they have the choice to take the Knicks pick or keep their own, and in 2012 they have both teams’ picks.

To balance the Bosh contract in a deal, the Raps could pick either Shane Battier or Jared Jeffries, and either Chuck Hayes or David Andersen, and add Jermaine Taylor. Battier and Hayes could, at least, offer solid veteran minutes next season.

The sweeter portion of the deal would be adding the promising Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger to the package, along with a Knicks’ pick that could still easily wind up in the lottery next season. Add to that, the pain-free contract situation, and the Rockets could be a serious contender for Chris Bosh.

As an alternative, the Rockets could structure a deal around a sign-and-trade for Luis Scola, but his age should give the Raps pause.

Houston gets:

Chris Bosh [3½]

Toronto gets:

Jordan Hill [¾]

Chase Budinger [¾]

Shane Battier [¾]

Chuck Hayes [¼]

Jermaine Taylor [0, contract]

2011 1st Round Pick [1]

Bosh to the Miami Heat

Miami’s pursuit of Chris Bosh will be hampered somewhat by the fact that they have literally not one single player to offer that the Raps would have any interest in. Miami would be relying on three things in order to land Bosh: finding a taker for Michael Beasley who would give them back something of value; the Raptors opting to blow up their squad and roll the dice on young players and future draft picks; and, Chris Bosh pretty much insisting on a trade to Miami.

Apparently the Washington Wizards might have some interest in Beasley. By the sheer volume of young players on their roster, the Wizards could potentially help the Heat land Bosh. The Raps’ dream target among Wizards’ players would be Andray Blatche, but there is close to zero chance that the Wizards would release him for a package built around Beasley.

An amusing potential three-way trade could temporarily leave Chris Bosh as the only signed player on the Miami roster, if they had yet to sign their draft picks or re-sign Dwayne Wade.

Heat get:

Bosh [3½]

Wizards get:

Michael Beasley [1½]

Mario Chalmers [¾]

Raptors get:

Al Thornton [¾]

JaVale McGee [½]

Nick Young [¼]

James Jones [0, contract]

Daequan Cook [0, contract]

2011 1st Round Pick (Heat have two, including the Raps own pick) [1]

2014 1st Round Pick (Wizards) [¾]

2017 1st Round Pick (Heat) [¼]

Bosh to the New Jersey Nets

The Nets currently have too many moving parts to assess their chances to land Bosh. For instance, if they were to win the John Wall lottery, Devin Harris could become a huge trading piece.

It is hard not to think the Nets have missed their window of opportunity for the summer of Bosh, LeBron and Wade. If they had broken ground in Brooklyn earlier, or recruited a Russian billionaire owner earlier, they might have had a fighting chance. As it stands now, any of those three would be making a huge leap of faith in joining the Nets.

Bosh to the Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks will be considered whenever a player with a large contract pursues a sign-and-trade deal. Owner Mark Cuban seems to collect players on huge contracts, and, as a result, his Mavs will usually have the contracts required to balance virtually any deal.

This offseason the big prize the Mavs can dangle is the massive contract of Erick Dampier. His contract is not guaranteed, and can be readily waived by the acquiring team. That said, this benefit may be of limited appeal to the Raptors.

Even after Dampier was waived, the Raps would likely have less than nine million dollars to spend under the cap (depending on the rest of the deal). And, in any event, the Raptors traditionally have trouble making efficient use of the free agent market.

From the Mavs’ perspective, a deal built around the Dampier contract would likely clean out their future draft picks for years to come. It is easy to envision a scenario in which the Raps demand four Mavs’ first round picks, the max a team is allowed to trade under normal circumstances.

Building a trade around Caron Butler might have more appeal for the Raptors. Butler offers value as a player, and as an expiring contract, in the not unlikely event that the Raptors’ season goes badly. The tricky piece, for the Raptors, would be to construct a deal around Butler while avoiding taking on any of the ugly contracts the Mavs would look to unload. This could result in a three-team trade to help balance out contracts. Rodrigue Beaubois is another intriguing target for the Raps.

Dallas gets:

Bosh [3½]

Houston gets:

Jose Barea [¼]

Toronto gets:

Caron Butler [1¾]

Rodrigue Beaubois [¾]

Chuck Hayes [¼, contract]

2014 1st Round Pick [¾]

Bosh to the Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have two movable pieces that could be worked into a Chris Bosh trade in Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich. Additionally, the team is far enough under the salary cap that, in the right circumstances, they could take on significantly more dollars in salary than they send out (though this would not be the case in a trade involving only the Bulls and Raptors, since the Raps salaries in and out must nearly balance).

The Raptors would have little to no interest in Hinrich, given their already crowded point situation. Sent on to another team, however, Hinrich could return a player (or player contract) of interest to the Raps. For instance, if the Charlotte Bobcats were to finally abandon underwhelming local product, Raymond Felton, they could dispatch the fungible Tyson Chandler, and his expiring contract. Indiana could likewise make a pitch for Hinrich based on coughing up expiring contracts. In any trade built around contracts, Bull Taj Gibson is an attractive additional target for the Raptors.

Deals built around Luol Deng might require an act of daring on the part of the Bulls, as trading Deng could leave them without a single natural wing player under contract. On the upside, the Bulls would get out from under the massive contract owed to Deng – a still-young player who’s development has been stagnant for the last three seasons.

If the Bulls still have any hope of landing two of the big three free agents, they will likely need to trade both Deng and Hinrich. Nevertheless, the Bulls trading Deng for a big, like Bosh, instead of a wing player, seems less likely than the Hinrich scenario.

Bulls get:

Bosh [3½]

Other Trading Partner gets:

Hinrich [1]

An additional player, in the cases below: James Johnson [¼] or Taj Gibson [1¼]

Toronto gets:

1 - older big, on an expiring contract, like: Troy Murphy [1½] or Tyson Chandler [¾]

1 - younger power forward, like: James Johnson [¼] or Taj Gibson [1¼]

2 - 1st Round Picks: 1-2011 [1] and 1-2014 [¾] or 1-2015 [½]

Packaging Turkoglu along with Bosh

This might well be a nightmare scenario for Bosh – carrying Turkoglu baggage along with him to his new home – but, if the Raps are convinced that they need to sell low on Hedo, packaging him with Bosh might be a good way to ensure them some return.

As it stands now, the Mavericks are the most obvious candidate to take on both Bosh and Hedo. A trade with the Mavs would likely represent a salary dump for the Raptors, as the return in players would be minimal. Building on the afore mentioned Mavs trade for Bosh, the Mavs would add the equivalent of two 1st Round Picks (one soon, one distant), and the expiring Dampier contract. The Raps would save upwards of 40 million dollars in this scenario.

Dallas gets:

Bosh [3½]

Turkoglu [1¼]

Toronto gets:

Caron Butler [1¾]

Rodrigue Beaubois [¾]

Erick Dampier [0, contract]

2011 1st Round Pick [1]

2013 1st Round Pick [1]

2017 1st Round Pick [¼]

Getting a replacement for Bosh

Many of the above trades would not return an obvious replacement for Bosh to the Raptors. Making certain of these trades, then, could leave the looming spectre of Drew Gooden or Udonis Haslem in a starting role for the Raps next season, as none of the more likable free agent power forwards would come for the mid-level exception, which could be the only signing mechanism left to the Raptors.

Is there another way for the Raptors to find an adequate replacement for Bosh outside of the Bosh trade itself? The short answer is yes. The longer answer is, it could get complicated and expensive.

Free agent David Lee is not going to sign outright for the money the Raptors can offer (even if the offer were made before a Bosh sign-and-trade eats much of the Raps’ cap room). Yet, if the Knicks were interested in one of the Raptors two point guards, a sign-and-trade deal could be made for Lee.

Ideally, the Knicks love and admire Jose Calderon, as his contract could be traded straight up for Lee’s newly signed one (assuming Lee signs the apparently Standard Issue Young Power Forward Contract, for 5 years and 65 million, as LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Jefferson both did). On his own, Calderon the player, does not represent great value for a David Lee sign-and-trade – so, the Raptors might be called on to add a pick, or a player, or both – but, the deal would be uncomplicated.

Likewise, if the Knicks like Jarrett Jack and a couple of the extra pieces the Raps have on hand (Marco Belinelli, etc.), salaries and player value could be made to balance pretty readily.

If, however, the Knicks were to insist on just Jack and a pick – in order to preserve their cap space – it would get very complex for the Raptors. The Raps would need to send out a significant amount of salary (to teams other than the Knicks), and take back an even larger amount, so that Jack’s salary could fall entirely within the wiggle room allowed (by NBA regulations) between the salaries they send out and those they get back. Excruciatingly complex wheeling and dealing. The upshot of which, in the demonstration below, would involve the Raptors taking on 10 million extra dollars in longer term contracts on value-less players.

New York gets:

Jarrett Jack [1½]

2015 1st Round Pick (Toronto) [½]

Dallas gets:

Reggie Evans [0, contract]

Marcus Banks [0, contract]

Sonny Weems [¼]

Oklahoma City gets:

Jose Barea [¼]

2017 1st Round Pick (Toronto) [¼]

Toronto gets:

David Lee [2]

Eric Maynor [½]

Matt Carroll [0, contract]

Eduardo Najera [0, contract]

Convincing Bosh to Stay

Reading the American media outlets, one could easily be convinced that there is zero chance that Chris Bosh would re-sign with the Raptors. It may well be the case that the chances are approaching zero, but a chance does exist.

In fact, Bosh himself has been quite explicit about what it would take for him to re-up with the Raps: the team must add a proven scorer who doesn’t settle for jumpers and can create his own shot.

Likewise, the Raptors have been explicit about the lengths they are willing to go to in order to retain Bosh. Specifically, they are willing to surpass the luxury tax threshold, which has typically marked the upper limit of the team’s salary budget.

Despite this willingness to spend, however, available players matching Bosh’s criteria are few and far between.

On paper, the best match is Corey Maggette of the Warriors. He is an accomplished scorer who plays an aggressive offensive game, rarely settling for long jumpers and getting to the free throw line with great frequency. He would also be readily available for trade, given his age and contract. Of course, for the Raps this represents a large part of his downside. Coupled with the fact that he lacks the wow factor, or All-Star status, that Bosh also seems to desire, acquiring Maggette likely would not be enough to convince Bosh to stay.

Two other players who have either been all-stars or, at the least, have bigger names than Maggette, could also be available in trade this summer. But, both Caron Butler and Richard Jefferson have seen precipitous declines in their performance this season. Neither is, any longer, an aggressive, go-to scorer.

Two younger players, who are often speculated to be available, also lack this aggressive, scoring mentality. Luol Deng has been the subject of trade rumours for years, but is more of a solid, all-around player than a scorer. Andre Iguodala is an even more likable all-around player, but has become a poster child example of a passive, non-go-to player. If Bosh buys into this rap on Iguodala, it is doubtful Bosh would accept him as the reason to re-sign. That said, the 76ers apparent willingness to part with him is beyond absurd, given his abilities, and if the Raps could get him, they should.

That leaves just one obvious target for the Raptors, restricted free agent Rudy Gay. He ticks the most boxes on Bosh’s list. He is absolutely willing to create, and take, his shot, possibly to excess. He also still has room to expand his game, he still settles for outside shots too often, and gets to the line at half the rate of a Corey Maggette. With some added aggressiveness, Gay could well become a 25 point-per-game score.

The huge potential downside on Rudy Gay is character. Namely, will signing a massive contract encourage him to become more aggressive, or allow him to become another de-motivated, high-salaried player. The last thing the Raptors need is a floater, who hogs the ball when he can be bothered to take it, and chucks lazy perimeter shots with 30% success.

In any event, as it stands now, it could be hard for the Raps to sign Gay. While, they have sufficient cap room to make him a fair offer, approaching 5 years and 55 million, they could not go beyond that to outbid another teams, or to discourage the Memphis Grizzlies from matching their offer. That said, 55 million is a fair offer for Gay, matching the contract the Warriors gave Monta Ellis, so the Raptors might be wise to walk away if the number went beyond that point anyway.

However, if the Raptors knew that acquiring Rudy Gay would convince Chris Bosh to re-sign, they might see fit to blow Memphis out of the water with a sign-and-trade offer, though it remains to be seen what that might be.

The Raptors: God Bows to Math

2009-07-09T08:30:00.001-07:00

The trade to be finalized today has not yet made the Raptors a better team; the two players the team added when the Hedo Turkoglu signing became a sign and trade are marginal at best. Neither is even as likable a player as Kris Humphries – the key extra player now departing in this four-team deal.

Instead, it is the sheer mathematical precision of the deal that is notable – and, it is the free agent options now back on the table that will give the Raptors a chance to become a better team.

The math is pretty breathtaking. *

After this trade is finalized the Raptors will have: the option to use both the Mid-level Salary Exception and the Bi-Annual Exception to sign players; sufficient cap space to sign Carlos Delfino and Pops Mensah-Bonsu to contracts at the level of their qualifying offers, around 2.7 million and 1.0 million respectively; and, meet their existing contract obligations – all while staying under the luxury tax threshold by just the slimmest of margins (likely under one hundred thousand dollars).

Thankfully, the Raptors would still have one mechanism for regaining a little extra cap space – they can save close to $800,000 by waiving Patrick O’Bryant, since just a little over half of his 2009-10 salary is currently guaranteed. The pain of eating that contract would be mitigated by the fact that, with all of the exceptions used and offers accepted, the Raptors would have 16 players under contract and would need to jettison one anyway.

The money saved on O’Bryant could come in handy in meeting any demands from Delfino and Mensah-Bonsu over and above their qualifying offers. Additionally, the Raps would save a minimum of $700,000 by finding a player willing to accept a salary at the Minimum Salary Exception level rather than the Bi-Annual.

This has been, and will continue to be, a very complicated process – and, the potential free agent signings are still just empty roster spots – but, it is clear that Bryan Colangelo and his aides, with their spreadsheets and slide-rules, have cleared the way for this team to improve significantly.

* Keep in mind that exact salary numbers are largely private, and a fair bit of guess work is involved.

The Long (Though Possibly Short) Goodbye

2009-07-02T05:37:00.000-07:00

I don’t follow the Raptors Fan Forums very closely (they are too numerous and too populous), so this may be old news in Raptorland, but, it’s time to start planning the farewell parade for Chris Bosh.

The reports of the Raps interest in David Lee do make good sense – he is a good young player and the centerpiece of the current Knicks squad – but, only as a sign-and-trade target, not a free agent signee. Signing Lee outright makes little sense for Toronto, since they would have too few minutes to go around upfront and too little money to go around on the wings. The Raps may well make an outright contract offer to Lee, but, eventually, the transaction would come down to a trade, Chris Bosh for a newly re-upped Lee plus another player to balance contracts – best case scenario, Danilo Gallinari.

Yes, this disappointing – another step down the path well-trodden by Stoudamire, McGrady, Carter, et al – but, in the case of Bosh, his leaving would have much more to do with the continuing ineptness (and unluckiness) of the Raptor franchise and less to do with ego, or imaginary slights of the players’ mom. If the Raptors had employed competent Head Coaches or General Managers more often; or lucked into the first overall pick in 2007 rather than 2006, Bosh might be the first star player to be a Raptor-for-life.

As it stands now though, the sign-and-trade scenario makes good sense for both teams.

I have spent months, and thousands of unpublished blog words, dreaming up scenarios for improving the 2010 Raptor team enough to entice Bosh to re-sign. Barring a highway robbery style trade (Marcus Banks for Kevin Durant, anyone?) the scenario does not exist in which this team is much better than .500 next season. And, come the trade deadline, Bosh’s trade value will be lower, due to the unlikelihood of a championship aspirant team having good, movable pieces to acquire him in midseason. Now that he has been confronted with the realities of the free agent market, Bryan Colangelo must know that now is the time to move Bosh.

Lee is a better fit to play alongside Andrea Bargnani, and would give the Raps a dominant rebounder – perhaps the first one in team history. Moreover, an available player at another position – like small forward Josh Childress – could replace a fair chunk of the mid-range offence that Bosh brings and Lee does not, while Lee brings a stronger post presence to the offensive end.

As for the Knicks, they are in an awkward spot with David Lee, facing the possibility of being outbid for his services, yet uncertain that he can be a player in a shiny era of Knicks dominance. Visions of a Bosh + tandem will dance in their heads: Bosh + LeBron James; Bosh + Dwayne Wade.

Ultimately, though it is frustrating to be back here again – with another star player on the way out rather than re-signing with Toronto – a trade for David Lee would be a relatively attractive way to transition from Bosh.

Chris Bosh: Can he be a Centerpiece Player?

2009-04-20T18:08:00.000-07:00

There has been much talk of late about the future of Chris Bosh in Toronto. With one year remaining on his current contract, this time next year (at the latest) he is sure to draw a new contract of maximum length and maximum salary. Which raises the question, can he still become a dominant player and the central figure of a competitive team?

What does a dominant Power Forward have that Chris Bosh does not? In the recent past, the league came through an era dominated by Power Forwards – according to 82games.com, the top three players in 2002-03 were Power Forwards – so there are no shortage of recent comparisons. Those three players – Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan* – have consistently been centerpiece players on successful teams.

How does Chris Bosh compare to the dominant forwards at their peak?

Garnett, Nowitzki and Duncan have each posted multiple seasons with Player Efficiency Ratings of over 27 – only 16 players in league history have had more than one season of comparable quality. During these peak seasons the three have also led successful teams, which averaged 59 wins per season. Chris Bosh has never posted a PER over 24 or been part of a team that won more than 47 games. In these general measures Bosh clearly falls short of dominant; this also plays out in more specific statistical measures.

Comparing the best two season period of Bosh’s Career (2006-2008) to the best stretch of Garnett’s (2003-2005), underscores several significant differences. Garnett takes over 10% more shots, grabs over 25% more total rebounds and blocks about one-third more shots per minute. However, the most obvious difference is in Garnett’s ability to pass the ball, he has double the assist rate of Bosh. Both players score similar points with similar efficiency.

Comparing these Bosh seasons to the best stretch of Duncan’s career (also 2003-2005), finds similar gaps in performance. Duncan out-shoots and out-rebounds Bosh by similar margins. He also has a better assist rate than Bosh. Duncan’s outstanding advantage is his shot-blocking, he blocks two and a half times more shots per minute than Bosh . Both players score similar points with similar efficiency.

Nowitzki is an awkward comparison for Bosh – there has never been a player in league history comparable to Nowitzki. However, its worth noting that at his best (2005-2007) he, like Duncan and Garnett, attempted far more shots than Bosh. Nowitzki is a significantly more prolific, more efficient scorer than the others. While his total rebounding is somewhat lower than Bosh, Nowitzki rates as the better defensive rebounder (his perimeter-based offensive game means he is out of position to grab offensive boards).

Interestingly, the three dominant big men all played their prime seasons at the same ages, 27 and 28. This leaves open the potential that Bosh’s peak may yet be to come.

How does Chris Bosh compare to the dominant forwards at the same age?

Comparing Bosh at 22 and 23 (his best seasons to date) to the others, many of the same trends play out. While Bosh did post a comparable PER of 23.2 (Duncan 24.0, Nowitzki 23.5, Garnett 23.0) the others each played on better teams – Duncan and Nowitzki significantly better.

The stat trends that distinguish current Bosh from prime Duncan and Garnett were already established by 23: young Garnett shot and rebounded more, and passed the ball more effectively; and, young Duncan shot and rebounded more and blocked far more shots. As a young player, Nowitzki did not shoot the ball more often than Bosh, but he was a more efficient scorer.

The bottom line is that Bosh simply does not rebound as well – particularly on the defensive end – as the others, and he has yet to assert himself as his team’s primary shot taker . Bosh also lacks the third kind of heat – in addition to a solid baseline of scoring and rebounding – that the dominant forwards all have: Duncan blocks shots; Garnett distributes; and Nowitzki hits outside shots. As it stands now, Bosh is a solid complementary player, and not the centerpiece of a potential championship team.

* Yes, Tim Duncan is a Power Forward, at least to the extent that Chris Bosh is; according to 82games.com, season in, season out he has played more of his minutes at the 4 than at the 5, while Bosh has spent more time at the 5.