Long-winded preamble
Below is a sampling of trade scenarios involving Chris Bosh. The selection of teams which have been included is based on a scan of media reports, indicating possible destinations for Bosh. Based on the assumption that these reports have some degree (at least minor) of reliability, Bosh’s actual interest in each given team is not discussed in this article.
Obviously, there are likely millions of possible trade permutations involving Bosh. Here they have been distilled to one per team; this is in no way to suggest that these are the only ways a trade involving Bosh could work out. That said, every variation that is shown here would work under NBA roster and salary regulations.
The number, shown in brackets, after each player or pick is an approximate value for the player, expressed in first-round draft pick equivalents. This number is based on the statistical performance of the player, the length of their contract (in the case of free agents, this is considered to be 0 years), and the age of the player. In general, until a player reaches a certain age, extra years under contract increase a player’s value. After a certain age, extra years under contract decrease a player’s value. Obviously, this value should not be taken as gospel.
By way of example, the value of LeBron James, based on his statistically performance, would be 5.0 first round pick equivalents, if he were signed to a four-year contract. As a free agent, with no contract, his value corrects to 4.0.
By this system, Chris Bosh’s value is 3.0 picks. This value is supported by history. The sign-and-trade value of Joe Johnson and Kenyon Martin (both max-contract sign-and-trades) was equivalent to 3.0 picks. In fact, as a result of that precedent, and because of his clear superiority to Johnson and Martin, Bosh’s value has been bumped up (somewhat arbitrarily) to 3.5 picks
Where draft picks are included in a trade scenario, the year of the pick has been specified, and the pick has been assigned a value. The year indicates the year when any conditions on the pick should be removed (it should be unconditional). Almost all picks now traded are conditional. The 2014 pick Toronto receives in the Knicks scenario might be imagined to be, instead, a conditional pick: top-20 protected in 2011; lottery protected in 2012; top-10 protected in 2013; and, unprotected in 2014. The value of the pick varies depending on the year, a more distant pick (or one with more conditions) is worth less.
End Long-winded preamble, beginning long-winded article
Bosh to the New York Knicks
A potential swap between these teams would likely be built around David Lee. The deal could readily come to involve three or four teams, since the Raptors are unlikely to be interested in Danilo Gallinari – as a deal sweetener – because of his similarity to Hedo Turkoglu, or Wilson Chandler, because of his similarity to DeMar DeRozan.
Orlando is a possible destination for Gallinari, as a Turkoglu v. 2.0 could appeal to them. Sending Mickael Pietrus on to the Raps, in a three-way deal, would also save the Magic over 6 million dollars, as they are a tax-paying team. Since Matt Barnes and J.J. Redick will both be out of contract this summer, saving that money could be appealing.
An interesting variant of this deal would return the same package to the Raps and Magic, but would net both Bosh and Baron Davis for the Knicks.
New York gets:
Bosh [3½]
Orlando gets:
Gallinari [1½]
J.R. Giddens [0, contract (option not exercised)]
Toronto gets:
David Lee [2]
Mickael Pietrus [¾]
2014 1st Round Pick (Orlando) [¾]
Bosh to the Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers will likely only be drawn into the Bosh bidding if they do not win the Championship this season. Andrew Bynum is the obvious target, but it is not difficult to imagine whiny, proxy GM Kobe Bryant instead calling for Pau Gasol’s ouster if they fail in the playoffs.
Both Bynum and Gasol have some downside risk for the Raps. Bynum is on a near-maximum salary despite having never played more than 2000 minutes in a season – due largely to injury. Given his recent contract extension, Gasol offers the real risk of having his max-contract outlast his max-contract skill level.
In either case, one could imagine the Raps extorting a pick (or two in Bynum’s case) as a hedge against these risks, and the Lakers complying to soothe the savage Kobe after a playoff failure
Lakers get:
Bosh [3½]
Toronto gets:
Pau Gasol [3]
2015 1st Round Pick [½]
or
Andrew Bynum [2¼]
2011 1st Round Pick [1]
2017 1st Round Pick [¼]
Bosh to the Los Angeles Clippers
Obviously, it is a long shot that the Clippers would make an appearance on Bosh’s short list. Nevertheless, the Clips may have the pieces to get the deal done in the event Bosh does find them suitable.
Chris Kaman has a contract that nearly balances a trade for Bosh. As a result, the Clips could offer a package similar to that offered by the Knicks.
Clippers get:
Bosh [3½]
Toronto gets:
Chris Kaman [2]
Pietrus (or similar) [¾]
2014 1st Round Pick [¾]
Bosh to the Portland Trail Blazers
Rumours persist that the Blazers are interested in Chris Bosh, though it remains to be seen if he reciprocates. Portland might be wise to reconsider their interest, since they are the team most likely to be badly taken advantage of in a potential Bosh deal.
For the past two seasons the Blazers have had enviable depth on the wings, with Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw all vying for time alongside Brandon Roy. This has also meant that none of these players has accrued the value that they would have had they been getting starters’ minutes. In 2009-10, for instance, Webster leeched playing time (and value) from the clearly superior Batum and Fernandez. As a result, the Blazers are less likely to receive fair value given the skill level of these two players.
Add to this the fact that the Blazers would likely move LaMarcus Aldridge to clear room for Bosh (most likely trading him for Bosh), and this all has the potential to go badly wrong for the Blazers.
Aldridge gives Portland 75% of the performance of Bosh for 60% of the money. In any other business, this would make him preferable to Bosh. In the NBA, however, teams almost ubiquitously favour elite talent over above average talent, despite the irrational price premium.
Portland gets:
Bosh [3½]
Toronto gets:
LaMarcus Aldridge [2¾]
Rudy Fernandez or Nicolas Batum [¾]
Joel Przybilla [0, contract (with potential to return from injury)]
Bosh to the Houston Rockets
Houston is the latest buzzed-about destination for Bosh. No one player the Rockets could make available would blow the Raptors socks off; instead the Rockets offer numbers and flexibility.
Houston has at least seven readily movable players, none of whom have a contract guaranteed beyond next season. Additionally, next off-season they have the choice to take the Knicks pick or keep their own, and in 2012 they have both teams’ picks.
To balance the Bosh contract in a deal, the Raps could pick either Shane Battier or Jared Jeffries, and either Chuck Hayes or David Andersen, and add Jermaine Taylor. Battier and Hayes could, at least, offer solid veteran minutes next season.
The sweeter portion of the deal would be adding the promising Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger to the package, along with a Knicks’ pick that could still easily wind up in the lottery next season. Add to that, the pain-free contract situation, and the Rockets could be a serious contender for Chris Bosh.
As an alternative, the Rockets could structure a deal around a sign-and-trade for Luis Scola, but his age should give the Raps pause.
Houston gets:
Chris Bosh [3½]
Toronto gets:
Jordan Hill [¾]
Chase Budinger [¾]
Shane Battier [¾]
Chuck Hayes [¼]
Jermaine Taylor [0, contract]
2011 1st Round Pick [1]
Bosh to the Miami Heat
Miami’s pursuit of Chris Bosh will be hampered somewhat by the fact that they have literally not one single player to offer that the Raps would have any interest in. Miami would be relying on three things in order to land Bosh: finding a taker for Michael Beasley who would give them back something of value; the Raptors opting to blow up their squad and roll the dice on young players and future draft picks; and, Chris Bosh pretty much insisting on a trade to Miami.
Apparently the Washington Wizards might have some interest in Beasley. By the sheer volume of young players on their roster, the Wizards could potentially help the Heat land Bosh. The Raps’ dream target among Wizards’ players would be Andray Blatche, but there is close to zero chance that the Wizards would release him for a package built around Beasley.
An amusing potential three-way trade could temporarily leave Chris Bosh as the only signed player on the Miami roster, if they had yet to sign their draft picks or re-sign Dwayne Wade.
Heat get:
Bosh [3½]
Wizards get:
Michael Beasley [1½]
Mario Chalmers [¾]
Raptors get:
Al Thornton [¾]
JaVale McGee [½]
Nick Young [¼]
James Jones [0, contract]
Daequan Cook [0, contract]
2011 1st Round Pick (Heat have two, including the Raps own pick) [1]
2014 1st Round Pick (Wizards) [¾]
2017 1st Round Pick (Heat) [¼]
Bosh to the New Jersey Nets
The Nets currently have too many moving parts to assess their chances to land Bosh. For instance, if they were to win the John Wall lottery, Devin Harris could become a huge trading piece.
It is hard not to think the Nets have missed their window of opportunity for the summer of Bosh, LeBron and Wade. If they had broken ground in Brooklyn earlier, or recruited a Russian billionaire owner earlier, they might have had a fighting chance. As it stands now, any of those three would be making a huge leap of faith in joining the Nets.
Bosh to the Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks will be considered whenever a player with a large contract pursues a sign-and-trade deal. Owner Mark Cuban seems to collect players on huge contracts, and, as a result, his Mavs will usually have the contracts required to balance virtually any deal.
This offseason the big prize the Mavs can dangle is the massive contract of Erick Dampier. His contract is not guaranteed, and can be readily waived by the acquiring team. That said, this benefit may be of limited appeal to the Raptors.
Even after Dampier was waived, the Raps would likely have less than nine million dollars to spend under the cap (depending on the rest of the deal). And, in any event, the Raptors traditionally have trouble making efficient use of the free agent market.
From the Mavs’ perspective, a deal built around the Dampier contract would likely clean out their future draft picks for years to come. It is easy to envision a scenario in which the Raps demand four Mavs’ first round picks, the max a team is allowed to trade under normal circumstances.
Building a trade around Caron Butler might have more appeal for the Raptors. Butler offers value as a player, and as an expiring contract, in the not unlikely event that the Raptors’ season goes badly. The tricky piece, for the Raptors, would be to construct a deal around Butler while avoiding taking on any of the ugly contracts the Mavs would look to unload. This could result in a three-team trade to help balance out contracts. Rodrigue Beaubois is another intriguing target for the Raps.
Dallas gets:
Bosh [3½]
Houston gets:
Jose Barea [¼]
Toronto gets:
Caron Butler [1¾]
Rodrigue Beaubois [¾]
Chuck Hayes [¼, contract]
2014 1st Round Pick [¾]
Bosh to the Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have two movable pieces that could be worked into a Chris Bosh trade in Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich. Additionally, the team is far enough under the salary cap that, in the right circumstances, they could take on significantly more dollars in salary than they send out (though this would not be the case in a trade involving only the Bulls and Raptors, since the Raps salaries in and out must nearly balance).
The Raptors would have little to no interest in Hinrich, given their already crowded point situation. Sent on to another team, however, Hinrich could return a player (or player contract) of interest to the Raps. For instance, if the Charlotte Bobcats were to finally abandon underwhelming local product, Raymond Felton, they could dispatch the fungible Tyson Chandler, and his expiring contract. Indiana could likewise make a pitch for Hinrich based on coughing up expiring contracts. In any trade built around contracts, Bull Taj Gibson is an attractive additional target for the Raptors.
Deals built around Luol Deng might require an act of daring on the part of the Bulls, as trading Deng could leave them without a single natural wing player under contract. On the upside, the Bulls would get out from under the massive contract owed to Deng – a still-young player who’s development has been stagnant for the last three seasons.
If the Bulls still have any hope of landing two of the big three free agents, they will likely need to trade both Deng and Hinrich. Nevertheless, the Bulls trading Deng for a big, like Bosh, instead of a wing player, seems less likely than the Hinrich scenario.
Bulls get:
Bosh [3½]
Other Trading Partner gets:
Hinrich [1]
An additional player, in the cases below: James Johnson [¼] or Taj Gibson [1¼]
Toronto gets:
1 - older big, on an expiring contract, like: Troy Murphy [1½] or Tyson Chandler [¾]
1 - younger power forward, like: James Johnson [¼] or Taj Gibson [1¼]
2 - 1st Round Picks: 1-2011 [1] and 1-2014 [¾] or 1-2015 [½]
Packaging Turkoglu along with Bosh
This might well be a nightmare scenario for Bosh – carrying Turkoglu baggage along with him to his new home – but, if the Raps are convinced that they need to sell low on Hedo, packaging him with Bosh might be a good way to ensure them some return.
As it stands now, the Mavericks are the most obvious candidate to take on both Bosh and Hedo. A trade with the Mavs would likely represent a salary dump for the Raptors, as the return in players would be minimal. Building on the afore mentioned Mavs trade for Bosh, the Mavs would add the equivalent of two 1st Round Picks (one soon, one distant), and the expiring Dampier contract. The Raps would save upwards of 40 million dollars in this scenario.
Dallas gets:
Bosh [3½]
Turkoglu [1¼]
Toronto gets:
Caron Butler [1¾]
Rodrigue Beaubois [¾]
Erick Dampier [0, contract]
2011 1st Round Pick [1]
2013 1st Round Pick [1]
2017 1st Round Pick [¼]
Getting a replacement for Bosh
Many of the above trades would not return an obvious replacement for Bosh to the Raptors. Making certain of these trades, then, could leave the looming spectre of Drew Gooden or Udonis Haslem in a starting role for the Raps next season, as none of the more likable free agent power forwards would come for the mid-level exception, which could be the only signing mechanism left to the Raptors.
Is there another way for the Raptors to find an adequate replacement for Bosh outside of the Bosh trade itself? The short answer is yes. The longer answer is, it could get complicated and expensive.
Free agent David Lee is not going to sign outright for the money the Raptors can offer (even if the offer were made before a Bosh sign-and-trade eats much of the Raps’ cap room). Yet, if the Knicks were interested in one of the Raptors two point guards, a sign-and-trade deal could be made for Lee.
Ideally, the Knicks love and admire Jose Calderon, as his contract could be traded straight up for Lee’s newly signed one (assuming Lee signs the apparently Standard Issue Young Power Forward Contract, for 5 years and 65 million, as LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Jefferson both did). On his own, Calderon the player, does not represent great value for a David Lee sign-and-trade – so, the Raptors might be called on to add a pick, or a player, or both – but, the deal would be uncomplicated.
Likewise, if the Knicks like Jarrett Jack and a couple of the extra pieces the Raps have on hand (Marco Belinelli, etc.), salaries and player value could be made to balance pretty readily.
If, however, the Knicks were to insist on just Jack and a pick – in order to preserve their cap space – it would get very complex for the Raptors. The Raps would need to send out a significant amount of salary (to teams other than the Knicks), and take back an even larger amount, so that Jack’s salary could fall entirely within the wiggle room allowed (by NBA regulations) between the salaries they send out and those they get back. Excruciatingly complex wheeling and dealing. The upshot of which, in the demonstration below, would involve the Raptors taking on 10 million extra dollars in longer term contracts on value-less players.
New York gets:
Jarrett Jack [1½]
2015 1st Round Pick (Toronto) [½]
Dallas gets:
Reggie Evans [0, contract]
Marcus Banks [0, contract]
Sonny Weems [¼]
Oklahoma City gets:
Jose Barea [¼]
2017 1st Round Pick (Toronto) [¼]
Toronto gets:
David Lee [2]
Eric Maynor [½]
Matt Carroll [0, contract]
Eduardo Najera [0, contract]
Convincing Bosh to Stay
Reading the American media outlets, one could easily be convinced that there is zero chance that Chris Bosh would re-sign with the Raptors. It may well be the case that the chances are approaching zero, but a chance does exist.
In fact, Bosh himself has been quite explicit about what it would take for him to re-up with the Raps: the team must add a proven scorer who doesn’t settle for jumpers and can create his own shot.
Likewise, the Raptors have been explicit about the lengths they are willing to go to in order to retain Bosh. Specifically, they are willing to surpass the luxury tax threshold, which has typically marked the upper limit of the team’s salary budget.
Despite this willingness to spend, however, available players matching Bosh’s criteria are few and far between.
On paper, the best match is Corey Maggette of the Warriors. He is an accomplished scorer who plays an aggressive offensive game, rarely settling for long jumpers and getting to the free throw line with great frequency. He would also be readily available for trade, given his age and contract. Of course, for the Raps this represents a large part of his downside. Coupled with the fact that he lacks the wow factor, or All-Star status, that Bosh also seems to desire, acquiring Maggette likely would not be enough to convince Bosh to stay.
Two other players who have either been all-stars or, at the least, have bigger names than Maggette, could also be available in trade this summer. But, both Caron Butler and Richard Jefferson have seen precipitous declines in their performance this season. Neither is, any longer, an aggressive, go-to scorer.
Two younger players, who are often speculated to be available, also lack this aggressive, scoring mentality. Luol Deng has been the subject of trade rumours for years, but is more of a solid, all-around player than a scorer. Andre Iguodala is an even more likable all-around player, but has become a poster child example of a passive, non-go-to player. If Bosh buys into this rap on Iguodala, it is doubtful Bosh would accept him as the reason to re-sign. That said, the 76ers apparent willingness to part with him is beyond absurd, given his abilities, and if the Raps could get him, they should.
That leaves just one obvious target for the Raptors, restricted free agent Rudy Gay. He ticks the most boxes on Bosh’s list. He is absolutely willing to create, and take, his shot, possibly to excess. He also still has room to expand his game, he still settles for outside shots too often, and gets to the line at half the rate of a Corey Maggette. With some added aggressiveness, Gay could well become a 25 point-per-game score.
The huge potential downside on Rudy Gay is character. Namely, will signing a massive contract encourage him to become more aggressive, or allow him to become another de-motivated, high-salaried player. The last thing the Raptors need is a floater, who hogs the ball when he can be bothered to take it, and chucks lazy perimeter shots with 30% success.
In any event, as it stands now, it could be hard for the Raps to sign Gay. While, they have sufficient cap room to make him a fair offer, approaching 5 years and 55 million, they could not go beyond that to outbid another teams, or to discourage the Memphis Grizzlies from matching their offer. That said, 55 million is a fair offer for Gay, matching the contract the Warriors gave Monta Ellis, so the Raptors might be wise to walk away if the number went beyond that point anyway.
However, if the Raptors knew that acquiring Rudy Gay would convince Chris Bosh to re-sign, they might see fit to blow Memphis out of the water with a sign-and-trade offer, though it remains to be seen what that might be.
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