The trade to be finalized today has not yet made the Raptors a better team; the two players the team added when the Hedo Turkoglu signing became a sign and trade are marginal at best. Neither is even as likable a player as Kris Humphries – the key extra player now departing in this four-team deal.
Instead, it is the sheer mathematical precision of the deal that is notable – and, it is the free agent options now back on the table that will give the Raptors a chance to become a better team.
The math is pretty breathtaking. *
After this trade is finalized the Raptors will have: the option to use both the Mid-level Salary Exception and the Bi-Annual Exception to sign players; sufficient cap space to sign Carlos Delfino and Pops Mensah-Bonsu to contracts at the level of their qualifying offers, around 2.7 million and 1.0 million respectively; and, meet their existing contract obligations – all while staying under the luxury tax threshold by just the slimmest of margins (likely under one hundred thousand dollars).
Thankfully, the Raptors would still have one mechanism for regaining a little extra cap space – they can save close to $800,000 by waiving Patrick O’Bryant, since just a little over half of his 2009-10 salary is currently guaranteed. The pain of eating that contract would be mitigated by the fact that, with all of the exceptions used and offers accepted, the Raptors would have 16 players under contract and would need to jettison one anyway.
The money saved on O’Bryant could come in handy in meeting any demands from Delfino and Mensah-Bonsu over and above their qualifying offers. Additionally, the Raps would save a minimum of $700,000 by finding a player willing to accept a salary at the Minimum Salary Exception level rather than the Bi-Annual.
This has been, and will continue to be, a very complicated process – and, the potential free agent signings are still just empty roster spots – but, it is clear that Bryan Colangelo and his aides, with their spreadsheets and slide-rules, have cleared the way for this team to improve significantly.
* Keep in mind that exact salary numbers are largely private, and a fair bit of guess work is involved.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Thursday, July 2, 2009
The Long (Though Possibly Short) Goodbye
I don’t follow the Raptors Fan Forums very closely (they are too numerous and too populous), so this may be old news in Raptorland, but, it’s time to start planning the farewell parade for Chris Bosh.
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The reports of the Raps interest in David Lee do make good sense – he is a good young player and the centerpiece of the current Knicks squad – but, only as a sign-and-trade target, not a free agent signee. Signing Lee outright makes little sense for Toronto, since they would have too few minutes to go around upfront and too little money to go around on the wings. The Raps may well make an outright contract offer to Lee, but, eventually, the transaction would come down to a trade, Chris Bosh for a newly re-upped Lee plus another player to balance contracts – best case scenario, Danilo Gallinari.
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Yes, this disappointing – another step down the path well-trodden by Stoudamire, McGrady, Carter, et al – but, in the case of Bosh, his leaving would have much more to do with the continuing ineptness (and unluckiness) of the Raptor franchise and less to do with ego, or imaginary slights of the players’ mom. If the Raptors had employed competent Head Coaches or General Managers more often; or lucked into the first overall pick in 2007 rather than 2006, Bosh might be the first star player to be a Raptor-for-life.
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As it stands now though, the sign-and-trade scenario makes good sense for both teams.
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I have spent months, and thousands of unpublished blog words, dreaming up scenarios for improving the 2010 Raptor team enough to entice Bosh to re-sign. Barring a highway robbery style trade (Marcus Banks for Kevin Durant, anyone?) the scenario does not exist in which this team is much better than .500 next season. And, come the trade deadline, Bosh’s trade value will be lower, due to the unlikelihood of a championship aspirant team having good, movable pieces to acquire him in midseason. Now that he has been confronted with the realities of the free agent market, Bryan Colangelo must know that now is the time to move Bosh.
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Lee is a better fit to play alongside Andrea Bargnani, and would give the Raps a dominant rebounder – perhaps the first one in team history. Moreover, an available player at another position – like small forward Josh Childress – could replace a fair chunk of the mid-range offence that Bosh brings and Lee does not, while Lee brings a stronger post presence to the offensive end.
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As for the Knicks, they are in an awkward spot with David Lee, facing the possibility of being outbid for his services, yet uncertain that he can be a player in a shiny era of Knicks dominance. Visions of a Bosh + tandem will dance in their heads: Bosh + LeBron James; Bosh + Dwayne Wade.
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Ultimately, though it is frustrating to be back here again – with another star player on the way out rather than re-signing with Toronto – a trade for David Lee would be a relatively attractive way to transition from Bosh.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Chris Bosh: Can he be a Centerpiece Player?
There has been much talk of late about the future of Chris Bosh in Toronto. With one year remaining on his current contract, this time next year (at the latest) he is sure to draw a new contract of maximum length and maximum salary. Which raises the question, can he still become a dominant player and the central figure of a competitive team?
What does a dominant Power Forward have that Chris Bosh does not? In the recent past, the league came through an era dominated by Power Forwards – according to 82games.com, the top three players in 2002-03 were Power Forwards – so there are no shortage of recent comparisons. Those three players – Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan* – have consistently been centerpiece players on successful teams.
How does Chris Bosh compare to the dominant forwards at their peak?
Garnett, Nowitzki and Duncan have each posted multiple seasons with Player Efficiency Ratings of over 27 – only 16 players in league history have had more than one season of comparable quality. During these peak seasons the three have also led successful teams, which averaged 59 wins per season. Chris Bosh has never posted a PER over 24 or been part of a team that won more than 47 games. In these general measures Bosh clearly falls short of dominant; this also plays out in more specific statistical measures.
Comparing the best two season period of Bosh’s Career (2006-2008) to the best stretch of Garnett’s (2003-2005), underscores several significant differences. Garnett takes over 10% more shots, grabs over 25% more total rebounds and blocks about one-third more shots per minute. However, the most obvious difference is in Garnett’s ability to pass the ball, he has double the assist rate of Bosh. Both players score similar points with similar efficiency.
Comparing these Bosh seasons to the best stretch of Duncan’s career (also 2003-2005), finds similar gaps in performance. Duncan out-shoots and out-rebounds Bosh by similar margins. He also has a better assist rate than Bosh. Duncan’s outstanding advantage is his shot-blocking, he blocks two and a half times more shots per minute than Bosh . Both players score similar points with similar efficiency.
Nowitzki is an awkward comparison for Bosh – there has never been a player in league history comparable to Nowitzki. However, its worth noting that at his best (2005-2007) he, like Duncan and Garnett, attempted far more shots than Bosh. Nowitzki is a significantly more prolific, more efficient scorer than the others. While his total rebounding is somewhat lower than Bosh, Nowitzki rates as the better defensive rebounder (his perimeter-based offensive game means he is out of position to grab offensive boards).
Interestingly, the three dominant big men all played their prime seasons at the same ages, 27 and 28. This leaves open the potential that Bosh’s peak may yet be to come.
How does Chris Bosh compare to the dominant forwards at the same age?
Comparing Bosh at 22 and 23 (his best seasons to date) to the others, many of the same trends play out. While Bosh did post a comparable PER of 23.2 (Duncan 24.0, Nowitzki 23.5, Garnett 23.0) the others each played on better teams – Duncan and Nowitzki significantly better.
The stat trends that distinguish current Bosh from prime Duncan and Garnett were already established by 23: young Garnett shot and rebounded more, and passed the ball more effectively; and, young Duncan shot and rebounded more and blocked far more shots. As a young player, Nowitzki did not shoot the ball more often than Bosh, but he was a more efficient scorer.
The bottom line is that Bosh simply does not rebound as well – particularly on the defensive end – as the others, and he has yet to assert himself as his team’s primary shot taker . Bosh also lacks the third kind of heat – in addition to a solid baseline of scoring and rebounding – that the dominant forwards all have: Duncan blocks shots; Garnett distributes; and Nowitzki hits outside shots. As it stands now, Bosh is a solid complementary player, and not the centerpiece of a potential championship team.
* Yes, Tim Duncan is a Power Forward, at least to the extent that Chris Bosh is; according to 82games.com, season in, season out he has played more of his minutes at the 4 than at the 5, while Bosh has spent more time at the 5.
What does a dominant Power Forward have that Chris Bosh does not? In the recent past, the league came through an era dominated by Power Forwards – according to 82games.com, the top three players in 2002-03 were Power Forwards – so there are no shortage of recent comparisons. Those three players – Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan* – have consistently been centerpiece players on successful teams.
How does Chris Bosh compare to the dominant forwards at their peak?
Garnett, Nowitzki and Duncan have each posted multiple seasons with Player Efficiency Ratings of over 27 – only 16 players in league history have had more than one season of comparable quality. During these peak seasons the three have also led successful teams, which averaged 59 wins per season. Chris Bosh has never posted a PER over 24 or been part of a team that won more than 47 games. In these general measures Bosh clearly falls short of dominant; this also plays out in more specific statistical measures.
Comparing the best two season period of Bosh’s Career (2006-2008) to the best stretch of Garnett’s (2003-2005), underscores several significant differences. Garnett takes over 10% more shots, grabs over 25% more total rebounds and blocks about one-third more shots per minute. However, the most obvious difference is in Garnett’s ability to pass the ball, he has double the assist rate of Bosh. Both players score similar points with similar efficiency.
Comparing these Bosh seasons to the best stretch of Duncan’s career (also 2003-2005), finds similar gaps in performance. Duncan out-shoots and out-rebounds Bosh by similar margins. He also has a better assist rate than Bosh. Duncan’s outstanding advantage is his shot-blocking, he blocks two and a half times more shots per minute than Bosh . Both players score similar points with similar efficiency.
Nowitzki is an awkward comparison for Bosh – there has never been a player in league history comparable to Nowitzki. However, its worth noting that at his best (2005-2007) he, like Duncan and Garnett, attempted far more shots than Bosh. Nowitzki is a significantly more prolific, more efficient scorer than the others. While his total rebounding is somewhat lower than Bosh, Nowitzki rates as the better defensive rebounder (his perimeter-based offensive game means he is out of position to grab offensive boards).
Interestingly, the three dominant big men all played their prime seasons at the same ages, 27 and 28. This leaves open the potential that Bosh’s peak may yet be to come.
How does Chris Bosh compare to the dominant forwards at the same age?
Comparing Bosh at 22 and 23 (his best seasons to date) to the others, many of the same trends play out. While Bosh did post a comparable PER of 23.2 (Duncan 24.0, Nowitzki 23.5, Garnett 23.0) the others each played on better teams – Duncan and Nowitzki significantly better.
The stat trends that distinguish current Bosh from prime Duncan and Garnett were already established by 23: young Garnett shot and rebounded more, and passed the ball more effectively; and, young Duncan shot and rebounded more and blocked far more shots. As a young player, Nowitzki did not shoot the ball more often than Bosh, but he was a more efficient scorer.
The bottom line is that Bosh simply does not rebound as well – particularly on the defensive end – as the others, and he has yet to assert himself as his team’s primary shot taker . Bosh also lacks the third kind of heat – in addition to a solid baseline of scoring and rebounding – that the dominant forwards all have: Duncan blocks shots; Garnett distributes; and Nowitzki hits outside shots. As it stands now, Bosh is a solid complementary player, and not the centerpiece of a potential championship team.
* Yes, Tim Duncan is a Power Forward, at least to the extent that Chris Bosh is; according to 82games.com, season in, season out he has played more of his minutes at the 4 than at the 5, while Bosh has spent more time at the 5.
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